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For Week Ending September 2, 2022

I hope you had an incredible Labor Day weekend. My wife Caitlin and I spent it hiding from the heat wave here in SoCal and preparing for baby Sauer to arrive in just 5 short weeks. I hope you got time to relax with family and friends!

I am excited to announce our collaboration and alliance with Adam Brawer of Adam Brawer Estates. Moving forward, the first Weekly Market & Economic Update of every month I will be sharing Adam’s thoughts on the real estate markets as well as local LA counting listings.

My goal is to offer our clients and readers the most informative experience possible and I believe real estate investing is one of the most impactful ways to grow long-term financial wealth. Below is an in-depth introduction to Adam and his team.

You can also find your Weekly Market & Economic Update below.

Interested in learning more? Schedule a call with me HERE.

Warmly,

Mark S Sauer

info@AllOneWealth.com
+1(310)355-8286

Adam Brawer

Introduction

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Market Update

Global Equities, Fixed Income & Commodities

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Economic Update

Jobs, Housing & Rate

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Charts of the Week

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S&P 500 & Nasdaq – A line in the sand

Adam Brawer

Intorduction

Adam is an incredible human – his thoughtful, caring and professional guidance when it comes to transacting real estate in the LA – and surrounding area – markets will garner you tremendous results.

Adam’s knowledge, meticulous attention to detail and service-based approach allows him to offer an exceptional experience when buying or selling property. His entertainment background helps clients prepare their homes with a Hollywood flair ensuring their properties stand out: and sell. Adam provides the utmost discretion and value to his clients which includes senior executives, A-list actors & directors, as well as professional athletes.

If you are looking to sell your property, you need an effective marketing strategy to properly position your home. Adam utilizes innovative promotions and cutting-edge tech that demand buyers’ attention.

Combining his personal and professional network and the world-class team at Aaron Kirman Group, Adam is well equipped to secure the right buyer for your home.

You can get in connect with Adam via email: adam.brawer@compass.com

You can also follow along Adam’s blog – with market and listing updates HERE

Market Update

Market Update

Global Equities, Fixed Income & Commodities

Global Equities: The fallout from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at the Jackson Hold Fed summit continued throughout the week with 5 straight days of losses. Friday stocks were on track to end the week with a green day – however, Nord Streams pipeline gas halt news from Russia triggered further systemic selling.  The S&P 500 was down -3.2% during the week, the Nasdaq dipped -4.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -2.9%. Developed International stocks slipped -3.6% while Emerging Markets were off -3.1%.

Fixed Income: 10-Year Treasury yields ended the week slightly higher at 3.1%, while the yield curve further inverted with the 2-Year yield up to 3.4% after eclipsing 3.5% mid-week. High yield bonds sold off along with equities, falling -1.5% during the week. Investors pulled over $5 billion from high yield bond mutual funds and ETFs during the weekly period ended August 31st.
Commodities: Oil was sharply lower during the week, falling to $86.82 as of Friday afternoon. News that Russia cut off natural gas to Europe on Friday through its Nord Stream pipeline, supposedly due to a leak, caused alarm and sent global stocks lower.
Economic Update

Economic Update

Jobs, Housing & Rates

Jobs ReportThe much-anticipated August jobs report gave investors some hope that inflation is in fact moderating, although the gains were short-lived due to geopolitical events. The headline number of 315,000 nonfarm payrolls was higher than the consensus forecast of 293,000 but an uptick in the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.7% suggested that the Fed’s tightening is beginning to constrict economic activity.

Housing Weakness: One area of the economy that the Fed rate hikes are clearly effecting heavily is the housing market, which has grounded to a halt amidst mortgage rates that have now eclipsed 6%. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows prices flattening but still elevated at 18.6% year-over-year. Mortgage applications continue to decline, falling –3.7% during the week and Refinancing applications have fallen precipitously, down –83% from a year ago.
Rate Expectations: Several Fed speakers this week discussed the eventual path of rates, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester calling for rates above 4% by early 2023 and no cuts next year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested a 50-75 basis point hike in September then perhaps dialing back hikes to end the year. The market is pricing in slightly higher odds of a 75 basis point move in September and is still undecided on where we end the year, with even odds on 3.50-3.75% and 3.75-4.0% per Fed Funds Futures markets. These odds will undoubtedly shift in two weeks when we get the next round of CPI inflation data on 9/13.
Charts of the Week

Charts of the Week

S&P 500

Our first Chart of the Week is the S&P 500, showing the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages. The index ran up nicely off the June lows but hit predictable resistance at the 200-day moving average. The break below the 50-day is concerning and bearish, however the 3900 level (green line) represents a more significant “line in the sand” given the multiple prior inflection points at this level. Thus far it has held, however the index remains very vulnerable to a retest of the June lows, should it break below 3900.

Nasdaq

Our Second chart is the Nasdaq. Similarly, the Nasdaq found resistance near the 200-day (red line) however was stopped out by the 13,700 level (purple line) and blew through the 50-day (blue line) only to now be testing the 11,900 level (green line) which, like the S&P, is a major line in the sand which needs to be held.

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