{"id":7495,"date":"2026-06-05T16:34:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T16:34:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allonewealth.com\/?p=7495"},"modified":"2026-06-05T17:10:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T17:10:27","slug":"the-cncs-cut-digital-abundance-physical-scarcity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allonewealth.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/05\/the-cncs-cut-digital-abundance-physical-scarcity\/","title":{"rendered":"The CNCS Cut – Digital Abundance, Physical Scarcity"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n[vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_background\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_image=\u201d6240\u2033 bg_position=\u201dleft top\u201d background_image_loading=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_repeat=\u201dno-repeat\u201d scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d text_color=\u201dlight\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d row_border_radius_applies=\u201dbg\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d color_overlay=\u201d#9c9a94\u2033 advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d43\u2033 overlay_strength=\u201d0.5\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d shape_divider_position=\u201dbottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d gradient_type=\u201ddefault\u201d shape_type=\u201d\u201d][vc_column column_padding=\u201dpadding-4-percent\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dall\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d column_position=\u201ddefault\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d tablet_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d phone_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d gradient_type=\u201ddefault\u201d][nectar_highlighted_text color_type=\u201dgradient\u201d highlight_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 secondary_color=\u201drgba(254,247,237,0.33)\u201d style=\u201dhalf_text\u201d]\n

Digital Abundance, Physical Scarcity<\/strong><\/h3>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][vc_column_text]\n

Digital Abundance, Physical Scarcity<\/strong><\/p>\n

June 2026<\/p>\n

Last month, we enjoyed the new highs while keeping an eye on our Safety Floor \u2014 the infrastructure, energy and materials needed for the AI buildout. The consolidation we anticipated arrived on schedule \u2014 measured, healthy, and without drama. The market caught its breath. So did we. And now, with the Warsh era officially underway at the Fed and \u2018Project Freedom\u2019 still navigating the Strait, June opens with a clearer view of what actually matters underneath the headlines.<\/p>\n

This month, I want to walk you through the single most important macro divergence I see unfolding: the widening gap between digital abundance and physical scarcity. It\u2019s currently\u00a0the lens through which I assess nearly every position in our portfolios.<\/div>\n

The Bifurcation Underneath the Index<\/strong><\/p>\n

The old advice \u2014 buy the broad index and forget it \u2014 is quietly becoming a less complete strategy than it used to be. The S&P 500 is heavily weighted toward traditional software and SaaS businesses, and those business models are facing real structural headwinds. As AI systems become genuinely capable of writing, testing, and maintaining code, the economic moat around legacy software is being hollowed out.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the real <\/em>value is concentrating somewhere specific: in the physical hardware that makes AI possible. Advanced semiconductor fabs, lithography lines, high-bandwidth memory \u2014 these things cannot be conjured by a software update. They take years to build, billions to fund, and a small number of companies hold the keys. This is why we are treating AI-adjacent hardware as an integral part of our tech allocation, and why we have been \u2014 and will continue to \u2014 deliberately rebalancing away from passive, broad-index tech exposure and toward the physical layer underneath it.<\/div>\n

The Power Floor Thesis<\/strong><\/p>\n

Every AI model that runs, every data center that powers it, every robot that acts on its inference \u2014 all of it ultimately consumes electrons, copper, steel and other precious metals and rare earths. This is the heart of what I\u2019ve been referring to the Power Floor: the physical infrastructure of energy generation, grid capacity, and industrial inputs that the existing \u2014 and now emerging \u2014 digital economy cannot function without.<\/p>\n

This is not a defensive posture \u2014 as investing this way would normally be\u00a0considered. It is a growth thesis.<\/strong> The data center buildout alone is creating sustained, multi-decade demand for electricity, transmission capacity, and the heavy metals that move power from source to socket. A single new mine takes 10 to 15 years to bring online; a single new data center can be announced and breaking ground within twelve months. The math of that mismatch is the investment thesis moving forward.<\/p>\n

This is also why we\u2019re also seeking a modest tactical allocation to physically-backed industrial metals like copper and silver \u2014 both face genuine structural supply deficits, and both are essential inputs to the electrification of AI. That said,\u00a0 we\u2019ll continue to avoid rare earths, where geopolitical manipulation makes price discovery unreliable and ROI incredibly speculative.<\/p>\n

IPO Liquidity Drain & Market Buying Power<\/strong><\/p>\n

I want to address a concern I have been hearing from economic pundits: the worry that the next wave of major tech capital raises \u2014 SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others \u2014 will \u201cdrain liquidity\u201d out of public markets and trigger a broader market pullback.<\/p>\n

Per FS Insight, total money market balances (Cash) now sit at roughly $7.8 trillion \u2014 a historic high. The capital these private tech giants need, while large in absolute terms, is genuinely small relative to that reservoir of cash. The story here is not fragility. It is the opposite: an unusually well-funded market with significant purchasing power waiting on the sidelines for the right entry points. That is not what a bubble looks like.
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Fed\u2019s Beige Book<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s June Beige Book reported economic activity rising in 10 of 12 Districts, with manufacturing expanding across nine \u2014 driven specifically by defense production and data center demand. That\u2019s our Power Floor thesis<\/em> showing up in federal data.<\/p>\n

But I want to be honest about the friction underneath the headline. Wage growth is slowing. Input costs for shipping and fuel are rising faster than companies can pass them through to prices, which is compressing margins \u2014 which could eventually affect valuations. And the Fed is flagging incremental deterioration in residential mortgages, consumer loans, and agricultural credit. The expansion is real. The strain underneath it is also real.<\/strong> Both can be true, and a thoughtful portfolio should be built for both.<\/p>\n

The Semiconductor Race<\/strong><\/p>\n

Briefly, because I know not every reader follows this closely: the competition inside our core hardware thesis is intensifying in ways that strengthen, not weaken, the case for owning the physical layer<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Nvidia is moving into traditional CPU territory through a co-designed chip with MediaTek, optimized for the power efficiency that local AI agents \u2014 those running on folks home computers or phones \u2014 require. Intel is entering the data center game with its new GPU architectures designed to sidestep memory bottlenecks issues. On the global stage, Huawei \u2014 who\u2019s blocked from buying advanced chipmaking equipment \u2014 has designed a new solution by stacking older computer chips on top of each other like building blocks to make them more powerful by 2031.<\/p>\n

The technical details matter less than the pattern: necessity is forcing physical innovation everywhere you look. And physical innovation requires physical inputs. That is the thesis, again, in a different costume.<\/p>\n

Stick to the Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our roadmap for June is disciplined and unchanged in its core: hold the Power Floor and AI hardware allocations, continue migrating capital away from passive index drag and into direct physical assets, and use ongoing tax-loss harvesting in digital assets to offset structural gains elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The headline noise will continue. The Fed transition, the Strait, inflation, the election cycle \u2014 none of these are going away in June. But the architecture underneath our portfolios was built for exactly this kind of environment: one where the surface is loud and the foundation is quiet.<\/p>\n

And now, your Monthly Market & Economic Update by the numbers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Warmly,<\/p>\n

Mark Sauer<\/strong> | Founder & CEO | AllOneWealth<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner column_margin=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_position=\u201ddefault\u201d row_position_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d row_position_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d pointer_events=\u201dall\u201d][vc_column_inner column_padding=\u201dpadding-2-percent\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dtop-bottom\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/3\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d enable_animation=\u201dtrue\u201d animation=\u201dfade-in-from-bottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d][nectar_highlighted_text color_type=\u201dgradient\u201d highlight_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 secondary_color=\u201drgba(254,247,237,0.33)\u201d style=\u201dhalf_text\u201d]\n

Market Update <\/i><\/h3>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][nectar_btn size=\u201dlarge\u201d button_style=\u201dregular\u201d button_color_2=\u201dAccent-Color\u201d solid_text_color_override=\u201d#fef7ed\u201d icon_family=\u201ddefault_arrow\u201d url=\u201d#Market\u201d text=\u201dLearn More\u201d margin_top=\u201d25\u2033 css_animation=\u201dslideInUp\u201d][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=\u201dpadding-2-percent\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dtop-bottom\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/3\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d enable_animation=\u201dtrue\u201d animation=\u201dfade-in-from-bottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d][nectar_highlighted_text color_type=\u201dgradient\u201d highlight_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 secondary_color=\u201drgba(254,247,237,0.33)\u201d style=\u201dhalf_text\u201d]\n

Economic Update <\/i><\/h3>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][nectar_btn size=\u201dlarge\u201d button_style=\u201dregular\u201d button_color_2=\u201dAccent-Color\u201d solid_text_color_override=\u201d#fef7ed\u201d icon_family=\u201ddefault_arrow\u201d url=\u201d#Economic\u201d text=\u201dLearn More\u201d margin_top=\u201d25\u2033 css_animation=\u201dslideInUp\u201d][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner column_padding=\u201dpadding-2-percent\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dtop-bottom\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/3\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d enable_animation=\u201dtrue\u201d animation=\u201dfade-in-from-bottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d][nectar_highlighted_text color_type=\u201dgradient\u201d highlight_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 secondary_color=\u201drgba(254,247,237,0.33)\u201d style=\u201dhalf_text\u201d]\n

Charts of the Month<\/i><\/h3>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][nectar_btn size=\u201dlarge\u201d button_style=\u201dregular\u201d button_color_2=\u201dAccent-Color\u201d solid_text_color_override=\u201d#fef7ed\u201d icon_family=\u201ddefault_arrow\u201d url=\u201d#chart\u201d text=\u201dLearn More\u201d margin_top=\u201d25\u2033 css_animation=\u201dslideInUp\u201d][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_content\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201dnone\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d top_padding=\u201d14%\u201d left_padding_desktop=\u201d8%\u201d right_padding_desktop=\u201d8%\u201d text_color=\u201ddark\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d row_border_radius_applies=\u201dbg\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d id=\u201dMarket\u201d advanced_gradient=\u201dradial-gradient(circle at top right, rgba(255,200,129,0.198) 0%, rgba(243,243,243,0) 41%)\u201d advanced_gradient_radial_position=\u201dtop right\u201d shape_divider_position=\u201dbottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d parallax_bg=\u201dtrue\u201d parallax_bg_speed=\u201dfast\u201d gradient_type=\u201dadvanced\u201d shape_type=\u201d\u201d advanced_gradient_display_type=\u201dradial\u201d][vc_column column_padding=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dall\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201d0px\u201d centered_text=\u201dtrue\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d column_position=\u201ddefault\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dradial\u201d 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Market Update <\/i><\/h2>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text css_animation=\u201dfadeInUp\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1780614637040{margin-bottom: 15px !important;}\u201d]\n
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  • \n

    Global Equities<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    May closed on a constructive note. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both pushed to new record highs in the final week, gaining 1.4% and 2.4% respectively, with software stocks notably reclaiming leadership as concerns about AI displacement eased on strong earnings. The Dow added 0.9%, US small caps rose 1.9%, and foreign developed markets gained 0.8% on the prospect of energy relief from a potential Iran framework. Emerging markets led the global tape, surging 4.1% on a sharp rally in Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor names.<\/p>\n

    The story underneath the numbers: markets are pricing in the possibility \u2014 not yet the certainty \u2014 of a de-escalation in the Gulf.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Fixed Income<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    Treasury yields drifted lower in the back half of the month, shrugging off a hot inflation print as geopolitical optimism took the lead. The 10-year ended near 4.44%, its lowest level in over two weeks. Markets currently expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady through year-end, though futures still assign roughly a 46% probability to a December rate hike \u2014 a reminder that the inflation question is not yet settled.<\/p>\n

    \n<\/p><\/li>\n

  • \n

    Commodities<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    WTI crude fell roughly 2% on the final session of the month to around $87 per barrel, capping a steep ~17% decline for May as the war\u2019s risk premium began unwinding. Technical analysts noted WTI appears to have completed a head-and-shoulders pattern with the head peaking near $108 in April \u2014 a constructive signal if the geopolitical thaw holds. Gold edged higher, with spot trading near $4,530 per ounce.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/vc_column_text][nectar_btn size=\u201dlarge\u201d button_style=\u201dregular\u201d button_color_2=\u201dAccent-Color\u201d solid_text_color_override=\u201d#fef7ed\u201d icon_family=\u201ddefault_arrow\u201d url=\u201d#Economic\u201d text=\u201dEconomic Update\u201d margin_top=\u201d25\u2033 css_animation=\u201dslideInUp\u201d][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_content\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201dnone\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d top_padding=\u201d14%\u201d left_padding_desktop=\u201d8%\u201d right_padding_desktop=\u201d8%\u201d text_color=\u201ddark\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d row_border_radius_applies=\u201dbg\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d id=\u201dEconomic\u201d advanced_gradient=\u201dradial-gradient(circle at top right, rgb(170,166,152) 0%, rgba(243,243,243,0) 41%)\u201d advanced_gradient_radial_position=\u201dtop right\u201d shape_divider_position=\u201dbottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d parallax_bg=\u201dtrue\u201d parallax_bg_speed=\u201dfast\u201d gradient_type=\u201dadvanced\u201d shape_type=\u201d\u201d advanced_gradient_display_type=\u201dradial\u201d][vc_column column_padding=\u201dpadding-2-percent\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dright\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d column_position=\u201ddefault\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/2\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d tablet_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d phone_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201dparallax\u201d animation_movement_type=\u201ddefault\u201d column_parallax_intensity=\u201d1.75\u2033 bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d gradient_type=\u201ddefault\u201d][vc_row_inner column_margin=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_position=\u201ddefault\u201d row_position_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d row_position_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d pointer_events=\u201dall\u201d][vc_column_inner column_padding=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dall\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201d0px\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d gradient_type=\u201ddefault\u201d][nectar_highlighted_text color_type=\u201dgradient\u201d highlight_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 secondary_color=\u201drgba(254,247,237,0.33)\u201d style=\u201dhalf_text\u201d]\n

    Economic Update <\/i><\/h2>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text css_animation=\u201dfadeInUp\u201d css=\u201d.vc_custom_1780677520963{margin-bottom: 15px !important;}\u201d]\n
      \n
    • April PCE Inflation Mixed:<\/strong><\/span> The headline rate climbed to a three-year high of 3.8% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the Iran-related oil shock. Core PCE \u2014 which strips out food and energy \u2014 decelerated month-over-month to 0.2% from 0.3%, though the annual rate ticked up to 3.3%. The May PCE report, due June 25th, will likely push the headline number above 4% before the recent oil decline begins to feed through.<\/li>\n
    • The Iran Framework:<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0US and Iranian negotiators reached agreement on a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding to extend the ceasefire and open formal negotiations on Iran\u2019s nuclear program. Under the proposed framework, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen toll-free for the 60-day window, Iran would be permitted to sell oil freely, and a reported $300 billion \u201cinvestment fund\u201d would address Iran\u2019s demand for war-related compensation. Final approval from both President Trump and Tehran remained pending at month-end. Secretary Rubio publicly cautioned that the US is maintaining a \u201cPlan B\u201d should talks collapse.<\/li>\n
    • Earnings:<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Two standouts closed the season strongly. Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion against estimates of $78.8 billion, with data center revenue growing 92% year-over-year. The company added $80 billion to its buyback authorization and raised the dividend to 25 cents \u2014 though shares traded lower post-print, continuing a recent pattern for the world\u2019s most valuable company. Dell Technologies delivered a genuine surprise: revenue up 88% year-over-year to $43.8 billion, beating estimates by roughly $9 billion, with adjusted EPS up 214%. Snowflake beat sharply and rallied over 36%, sparking the broader software rebound.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/vc_column_text][nectar_btn size=\u201dlarge\u201d button_style=\u201dregular\u201d button_color_2=\u201dAccent-Color\u201d solid_text_color_override=\u201d#fef7ed\u201d icon_family=\u201ddefault_arrow\u201d url=\u201d#chart\u201d text=\u201dChart of the Week\u201d margin_top=\u201d25\u2033 css_animation=\u201dslideInUp\u201d][\/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dall\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201d0px\u201d centered_text=\u201dtrue\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d column_position=\u201ddefault\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dradial\u201d 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      Charts of the Month<\/i><\/h2>\n[\/nectar_highlighted_text][vc_row_inner column_margin=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bottom_padding=\u201d20\u2033 bottom_padding_tablet=\u201d10\u2033 text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_position=\u201ddefault\u201d row_position_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d row_position_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d pointer_events=\u201dall\u201d][vc_column_inner column_padding=\u201dno-extra-padding\u201d column_padding_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d column_padding_position=\u201dall\u201d column_element_spacing=\u201ddefault\u201d background_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 background_hover_color_opacity=\u201d1\u2033 column_shadow=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d column_link_target=\u201d_self\u201d gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d enable_animation=\u201dtrue\u201d animation=\u201dfade-in-from-bottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d][vc_column_text]\n

      The US Personal Savings Rate Is Telling Us Something<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n

      The American consumer is running thin. The personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April \u2014 the lowest reading since June 2022, and within striking distance of the post-pandemic low. For the first time since 2023, consumer price inflation is outpacing wage growth, which means real disposable income is shrinking in real time. The high cost of essentials \u2014 particularly food and gasoline \u2014 is doing most of the damage.<\/p>\n

      A few data points that sharpen the picture: roughly 71% of taxpayers report having already spent their (larger-than-usual) tax refunds. Credit card delinquencies have spiked to a 15-year high. Total outstanding credit card debt reached $1.25 trillion in Q1, up 5.9% year-over-year. This is not yet a crisis, but it is the data signature of a household sector that is absorbing real strain.<\/p>\n

      Why this matters for the portfolio: the Consumer Discretionary weakness we flagged in May \u2014 cruise lines, booking agencies, the equal-weighted Discretionary ratio at four-year lows \u2014 is not a technical curiosity. It is this chart, expressed in stock prices. A resolution to the Iran conflict and the resulting decline in gas prices would provide the single fastest mechanism for relief to household balance sheets. The framework is built to participate in that relief without depending on it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      Source: Data by St. Louis Federal Reserve. Chart by VestGen. Commentary by Mark Sauer<\/h6>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_background\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201dnone\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d top_padding=\u201d6%\u201d bottom_padding=\u201d6%\u201d top_padding_tablet=\u201d7%\u201d bottom_padding_tablet=\u201d10%\u201d text_color=\u201dcustom\u201d custom_text_color=\u201d#d4c0ff\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d row_border_radius_applies=\u201dbg\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d id=\u201dimpact\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d enable_shape_divider=\u201dtrue\u201d shape_divider_color=\u201d#ffffff\u201d 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column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d][image_with_animation image_url=\u201d7498\u2033 image_size=\u201dfull\u201d animation_type=\u201dentrance\u201d animation=\u201dro-reveal-from-right\u201d hover_animation=\u201dnone\u201d alignment=\u201dcenter\u201d border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d image_loading=\u201ddefault\u201d max_width=\u201d100%\u201d max_width_mobile=\u201ddefault\u201d][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_background\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201dnone\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d top_padding=\u201d12%\u201d left_padding_desktop=\u201d15%\u201d constrain_group_2=\u201dyes\u201d right_padding_desktop=\u201d15%\u201d top_padding_tablet=\u201d20%\u201d left_padding_tablet=\u201d10%\u201d constrain_group_4=\u201dyes\u201d right_padding_tablet=\u201d10%\u201d 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column_position=\u201ddefault\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 width=\u201d1\/1\u2033 tablet_width_inherit=\u201ddefault\u201d tablet_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d phone_text_alignment=\u201ddefault\u201d animation_type=\u201ddefault\u201d enable_animation=\u201dtrue\u201d animation=\u201dreveal-from-bottom\u201d bg_image_animation=\u201dnone\u201d border_type=\u201dsimple\u201d column_border_width=\u201dnone\u201d column_border_style=\u201dsolid\u201d gradient_type=\u201ddefault\u201d][vc_row_inner column_margin=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bottom_padding=\u201d20\u2033 bottom_padding_tablet=\u201d10\u2033 text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_position=\u201ddefault\u201d row_position_tablet=\u201dinherit\u201d row_position_phone=\u201dinherit\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d 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      Core PCE vs. Trimmed Mean PCE: The Quiet Battle Over the Inflation Number<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n

      This is one to watch closely, because it could quietly reshape the path of interest rates.<\/p>\n

      In his swearing-in address, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh outlined three priorities: reform what he called outdated economic data models, reduce contradictory \u201cFedspeak\u201d from regional Fed presidents, and eventually unwind the Fed\u2019s balance sheet. The most consequential of those \u2014 by a wide margin \u2014 is the first one.<\/p>\n

      Warsh has publicly signaled a preference for replacing the Fed\u2019s official inflation gauge from Core PCE to a lesser-known alternative called Trimmed Mean PCE. The difference sounds technical but matters enormously:<\/p>\n

      Core PCE removes food and energy every month, because those categories are historically volatile.<\/p>\n

      Trimmed Mean PCE removes whatever categories are most volatile in any given month \u2014 high and low. The result is a smoother line that tends to run lower in periods of energy-driven inflation spikes.<\/p>\n

      Look at the chart. Core PCE currently sits at 3.2%. Trimmed Mean PCE sits at 2.4% \u2014 much closer to the Fed\u2019s 2% target. If Warsh successfully lobbies for the benchmark change, the doves on the FOMC gain immediate analytical cover for rate cuts. That single methodological shift could meaningfully lower the bar for easing without any change to the underlying economy.<\/p>\n

      Why this matters for the portfolio: the path of interest rates affects everything from bond duration to growth-stock valuations to the cost of capital for the infrastructure buildout we discussed in our lead piece. A Fed that finds a credible reason to cut sooner is a Fed that lowers the discount rate on long-duration growth assets \u2014 including the AI hardware and Power Floor exposures we have been building toward. Critics will rightly point out that \u201ctrimming\u201d volatile categories can mask broad, sustained price increases, and that critique deserves to be heard. But the institutional momentum behind a quieter inflation number is real, and worth watching.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      Source: ChData Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, chart by VestGen. Commentary by Mark Sauer<\/h6>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u201dfull_width_background\u201d full_screen_row_position=\u201dmiddle\u201d column_margin=\u201dnone\u201d column_direction=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_tablet=\u201ddefault\u201d column_direction_phone=\u201ddefault\u201d bg_color=\u201d#aaa698\u2033 scene_position=\u201dcenter\u201d top_padding=\u201d6%\u201d bottom_padding=\u201d6%\u201d top_padding_tablet=\u201d7%\u201d bottom_padding_tablet=\u201d10%\u201d text_color=\u201dcustom\u201d custom_text_color=\u201d#d4c0ff\u201d text_align=\u201dleft\u201d row_border_radius=\u201dnone\u201d row_border_radius_applies=\u201dbg\u201d overflow=\u201dvisible\u201d id=\u201dimpact\u201d advanced_gradient_angle=\u201d0\u2033 overlay_strength=\u201d0.3\u2033 gradient_direction=\u201dleft_to_right\u201d enable_shape_divider=\u201dtrue\u201d shape_divider_color=\u201d#ffffff\u201d 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